[English][Listening] Elon musk: Future of AI (Youtube)

https://youtu.be/B-dhDrUefQQ?feature=shared 

 

* Note: There may be mistake in the sentences. Feedback is welcome

 

[Elon]

I do have those theory about prediction which is the most entertaining outcome as seen by a third party not the participants is the most likely

 

: the most likely = the outcome that has the highest probability of occuring

 

That's really, like, ... , it' not necessarily the best thing for those involve in it. Like, you could be watching a World one movie while people are getting blown to pieces, while sipping a soda and eating popcorn.

 

: being destroyed or severely damaged, usually by an explosion

 

Um, not so great for those in the movie but it is entertaining.

 

um, I think this again, it's probably going to get hot in the Pacific. So hopefully not to hot but I think it's going to get hot. 

 

And hopefully we can get past that get to a positive situation for the world in the spirit of aspiration. We're all on team humanity. But it's gonna get spicy.  

 

: get past = overcome, move beyond, resolve a particular issue or situation.

: in the spirit of aspiration = with a mindset or attitude of ambition, hope, and desire for achievement

 

--- [1m]

 

And then, I mean, basically if I were say like, the, you know, most concerning thing is probably a taiwan question over the next three years.

 

And then, three years after that is the ... , I would be surprised if there is not digital super intelligences in roughly the five or six years time frame.

 

If this was a Netflix series or somthing, I'd say the the finale would be a showdown between the western and China. And the series finale will be AGI 

 

[other]

Well that's fast. I didn't think five years. I mean, I didn't realize that you had a view that had that quickly. And bringing it back a little bit to AI, I guess two questions.

One, for people, even your harshest critics, Elon, recognize that you've been one of the most successful entrepreneurs, technologist in the world. And if you're a young Elon musk or an aspiring young person, and you're seeing the world of AI. Or you're someone who's Blue collar family and you've got a kid, and you seeing AI and concerned about automation and what you should do. What would you say to them, I mean, what would you say to someone young 15, 18, 20 in the world that we're entering , either if they have a college degree or not that they should do to prepare themselves for the future economically.

 

---[2m 30s]

 

[Elon]

I can't think anything like, I suppose that if someone is able to contribute to building AI in a positive way, if someone has that technical ability, that is probably the right thing to work on.

 

For average citizen, I think, it's gonna be.... the future is definitely going to be interesting.

 

Things get very strange in the future where the AI can basically do everything. And the benign scenario, I guess we will look for personal fulfillment in some way.... I think, between now and then, just trying to be useful.

 

I mean, on manufacturing front, I do think we should place a much greater weight in the United states on the importance of manufacturing. I think, the things that are shifting back in that direction.

 

You know, it generally when somebody asks me for advice, my advice is "try to be as useful as possible". It's actually quite hard to be useful.

 

And, if you can be of use to your fellow humans then, and contribute more than you take, then I think that's a great thing. 

 

: can be of use = can be useful

 

Um, I have a lot of respect for those who work hard and do.. make goods, provided services in excess of what they take, that is just a fundamentally good thing.

 

But it's a hard question to answer with certainty. Because it is so a certain... the advent of AGI is often referred to as the singularity. A singularity is like a black hole, you just don't know what happens after that.

 

You know, after you go into black hole. Like, we are on the Event Horizon, the singularity of digital super intelligence. So definitely one of the most interesting parts of all of history.

 

And I've acturally thought like, well, I wonder if.... maybe it would have been better to be have been born at a different time before artificial general intelligence. 

 

But actually you know what, even if it is, a personal conclusion I came to is that, I actually, I would prefer to be alive to see it. Just because it's the most interesting thing in history 

---[5m]

 

Even if it was a calamity, i guess i prefer to see it, rather not see it and obviously we want to do everything to make sure it is not a calamity. 

 

: calamity = disaster, large-scale misfortuen/ catastrophe/ tragedy

 

I guess, you know, the positive side of it, it won't be boring. Definitely won't be boring. And I think, if i were to assign probabilities, i think it is more likely to be a positive scenario than a bad scenario. 

 

It's just that the bad scenario is not 0%, and we want to do everything we can to minimize minimize the probability of a bad outcome with AI.

 

But I should clarify that, I don't know, it's maybe 70 or 80 % likely to be a good future. And maybe a great future even.

 

I think of the future as like probabilities. I think ... for sure, the furture is a set of branching probabilities streams.

The main difference between "think" and "think of" lies in the way they are used and the meaning they convey.

1. "Think": The verb "think" refers to the mental process of considering, reflecting, or forming thoughts, opinions, or beliefs. It generally focuses on the act of cognition itself.

Examples:

• "I think she is a talented musician."
• "He thinks deeply about philosophical questions."
• "They think differently about politics."

1. "Think of": The phrase "think of" implies directing one's thoughts towards a specific subject or bringing something to mind. It often suggests actively considering or imagining someone or something in a particular way.

Examples:

• "Think of a solution to this problem."
• "When I think of summer, I envision sunny beaches and ice cream."
• "Can you think of any examples that support your argument?"

In summary, while both expressions involve mental processes, "think" generally pertains to the act of thinking itself, while "think of" emphasizes directing thoughts towards a specific subject or bringing something to mind.

 

[other]

 

Would there be, Elon, like a signpost that were nearing such a singularity? right. I mean, I think one of the reasons there was so much excitement over chat GPT is that, you never going back to Alan Truing's papers on AI we've we've had this idea that a system passes the Truing test or the imittion game that it would be said to e intelligent.

 

: signpost = signal, directional sign, clue, marker

 

And my understandings were basically there, do you believe that test it a good marker for achieving AI or AGI, do you believe there's some other sort of... thing we should be looking for?

 

And I believe you had a debate over... consciousness when it comes to AI recently and would be eager to get your thought on that

 

[Elon]

well.. I think we already pass the Turing testat this point. well, ChatGPT well passed the Turing test. And we are on our way to digital super intelligence. I think it's five or six years away.

 

well, the definition of digital super intelligence is that it's smarter than any human at anything. It's not necessarily smater than the sum of all humans. That's a higher part to be smarter than some of humans.

 

And especially given that, the sum of all humans that are machine augmented in that we have. we all have computers and phones, software applications. we're already de facto cyborgs 

 

: de facto = in fact

 

---[7m30s]